Posted on by Californiacontrarian

A Few Thoughts On the Wuhan Flu

Those of us in California, Illinois, and New York are on lockdown. Is it just coincidence  that at this time, that those states which are the most affected by this Wuhan virus are blue states? Now before you go off thinking that I am some sort of anti-blue-ite, my answer is “not likely a coincidence at this point as places with a higher population, or more accurately a denser population are higher risk areas . . . Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Seattle, etc. However, we do not know what the actual incidence is in these places. In certain places we know how many cases there are, and how many have died, but we can only estimate what the actual incidence is. How many have this virus, but have little if any symptoms? We don’t know. Statisticians can give an estimate, but how good is the estimate? We don’t know.

I think that a random estimate should be done, perhaps a couple of times per week, to more accurately access the progress, or lack thereof, of this deliberate strangulation of our economy. For instance, I would suggest a random sampling of the people in, let’s say, in Los Angeles County. If 100, or perhaps 1000 random people were tested, we would then have an estimate of the actual incidence of infection in Los Angeles County, and then we would then be able to compare this incidence to the incidence last week or next week to see if any progress has been made. If the incidence is not decreasing or even increasing, then perhaps the logic of these lockdowns should re-considered. Likewise if the incidence were decreasing, then perhaps the pain from these lockdowns is worth it. 
In the future, at some point, a decision will have to be made to lighten up or not lighten up on lockdowns. When that time comes, how will we know if a relaxation is a good idea? To me the answer is obvious . . . test 1000 random people and see if the decreasing incidence is maintaining or not.
There is no segue here . . . just a few more random thoughts:

-In the Midwest, there are lines outside the doors of stores that are selling guns!

-When this is over, there will be a lot of thinner dogs (having been walked multiple times a day), and a lot of heavier people (having been trapped inside, snacking incessantly)!

-Companies will learn that a lot of people can work very efficiently from home. Some may ask, “Why have large office buildings with all of the overhead that goes along with these large offices?

-A lot of parents will discover that home-schooling is very efficient, and the kids actually like it, and some learn more.

-College students and their parents will ask, “Why are we paying these outlandish tuition costs when a significant number of classes can be done on-line, and then be repeated again and again for years with no additional input from the professors?”

-Does anyone else find it ironic that those who are going to suffer the least health-wise from this virus (the young) are going to suffer the most economically from this remedy (shutdown), and vice-versa, those who will potentially suffer the most from this virus (the oldest among us) will suffer the least economically (I haven’t heard any rumors about the stopping of Social Security checks).

-Is it also somewhat ironic that this so called, “vindictive” President appears to giving the most help to those states whose Democrats have called him such!

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