Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Are We Overreacting ?

The headline in today’s local paper: 

Worldwide Death Toll From Virus Tops 100,000

The sub-headline read: 

County deaths rise to 44, with 65 new cases reported

(Keep in mind that these types of headlines sell newspapers.)

In the body of the article the actual present statistics on the Wuhan virus (Covid-19) in San Diego County were given as follows:

Positive Covid tests / total tests for Covid = 1693/23,353  = 7.2% (only 7.2% of   those tested actually had the virus)

Patients hospitalized / positive tests = 374/1693 = 22% (less than one in four with a positive test had to be hospitalized)

Patients transferred to I.C.U / hospitalized patients = 140/374 = 37% (only a little over one in three hospitalized patients were sick enough that they needed to be transferred to ICU)

Covid deaths/ I.C.U. Covid patients = 44/140 = 31% (assuming that most of those that die are already in ICUs, one in three of the sickest ICU patients do not leave the hospital)

In addition in the article it was stated that half of these deaths were seniors living in congregate facilities (housing in which each individual has private living quarters, but shares other facilities.)

I then looked up the following:

Population of San Diego County = 3,100,000

I then calculated the following:

Your present chance of dying of Covid-19 in 

      San Diego County = 44/3,100,000 = 0.0014% !

Would we in San Diego feel the same angst about the Wuhan virus if instead the headline read: 

“Your chance of dying from the coronavirus in San Diego County is only 0.0014%”

Or what if the headline read: 

“If you do not live in a congregate facility, your chance of dying from Covid-19    in San Diego is 0.0007%”

(Keep in mind that these types of headlines do not sell papers!)

If I were now laid off and now unemployed and read either of the latter two headlines as well as the above statistics, I would probably say, “Are we overreacting?”

Hmmm! I wonder!

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