Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Common Sense; What Are the Odds ?


My buddy, Randy, related an interesting analogy to me today. Yes, of course we were at least six feet apart!

He reminded me that last year we were at the Del Mar Fair on the first day. After we approached the Super Tilt O Whirl, we read the warnings. The last line on the warning sheet said that your chance of dying on that ride was one in one-hundred (0.01). Did we go on that ride? . . . No way! When we went back the next day, some safety improvements to the ride had been made, and now the recalculated risk of death was now one in one-thousand (0.001), and we started to think about it. The next day the odds were one in ten-thousand (0.0001). We thought it over, and decided that these were good odds, and so we went on the ride that day and had fun like normal people do.

In retrospect we were certainly very conscientious and cautious and did not go on that particular ride until the odds were greatly in our favor . . . 1 in 10,000 are certainly very good odds. Agreed??

As of yesterday eighty-seven people in San Diego County (SDC) have died because of the Wuhan coronavirus. SDC has over three million people, and so therefore the risk of dying of the coronavirus here is 87/3,000,000 (0.00003). [Just for interest’s sake let’s say that the number of deaths from this virus was triple what it actually is . . . 261 instead of 87. If that were so, the risk of dying from the coronavirus would be 261/3,000,000 (0.00009)- still dramatically less than the risk of dying on the Super Tilt O’Whirl] In addition the median age of those succumbing to this virus in SDC is 80 years of age. If you were 80, I would not recommend that you go on the Super Tilt O’Whirl. Why? . . . because at age eighty that ride would be way too risky for you because of your other underlying conditions . . . heart disease, stroke, etc.

In other words if you are close to eighty do not ride the Super Tilt O’Whirl, and self quarantine yourself because you are at higher risk of dying of the coronavirus. For everyone else in SDC use good judgement. 

This seems to me like good old-fashioned common sense. 

Can someone please tell me why here in SDC we are not using common sense?

In Orange County they filled in outdoor skate parks with sand to try to make it unusable. . . . too risky! As of last week Orange County had 28 deaths from the Wuhan virus. For a population of almost 3,000,000 in the O.C., the risk of dying from this virus is 28/2,900,000 or 0.00001. 

From these calculated risks in either SDC or in the O.C., it seems to me that those in charge have lost all common sense!

46 Replies to “Common Sense; What Are the Odds ?”

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