Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Florida


When will we learn the results of this Presidential election? It will probably be days or even weeks before the final tally is in. Undoubtedly there will be skulduggery in counting the votes in many states . . . which ballots are valid and which are fake? With the large number of mail-in ballots, the absentee ballots, the court decisions to extend deadlines, the comparing of voter’s signatures, and the number of dead people voting (other than in Chicago), there is going to be a substantial delay before all the legitimate votes are counted. (Remember, Hillary’s advice to Biden not to concede.)

Don’t be surprised if the Supreme Court has to get involved. (Thank God that the Court now has nine members.)

Are there any hints or shortcuts to tell who is likely to win before the fat-lady sings? The obvious answer is, “no,” however there is an indicator that can give a good reading before all of the votes are counted. That indicator is Florida. 

I have read the following multiple times:

“If Biden wins Florida, his chance of winning the presidency is 95%; whereas if Biden loses Florida, his chance of winning drops to <50%.”

Certainly there are multiple other battleground states in which the polls are too close to call at this point, but Florida appears to be a key state for each candidate, and more important South Florida appears to be a critical piece of the Florida puzzle. Why? Because South Florida (Miami-Dade County) is heavily Democrat. Hillary won that part of the state by >29% in 2016, and still lost Florida. However, this year there appears to be some Democrat angst concerning South Florida, because at this point, the turnout is relatively low. Young people are not getting out to vote there as anticipated. (FL: total Ds lead 95,130 so Rs again chopping that lead bit by bit. Ds led 96,400 going into election day 2016 when Trump won by 113,000.)

It is quite interesting that on Sunday, 11/1, President Trump held his final rally of five that day in Opa Locka, Florida. Where the hell is Opa Locka? Why hold a rally there? Well, Opa Locka is in Miami-Dade County. The rally started late at 11:47 pm, and lasted a little over an hour till 12:49 a.m. The Opa Locka Executive Airport was packed . . . at midnight for the rally.

At the Opa-locka Rally there were 14,254 signups – 23.9% of whom did not vote in 2016. Will these 2016 non-voters vote for Trump in 2020 or are they just there to enjoy the crowd? (You must make your own judgement on that. I have made mine.)

The latest CBS poll has Florida going for Trump, and the Democracy Institute State Polls has the following (per Breitbart):

FLORIDA

Trump 49%

Biden  45%

So the bottom line is that the vote tallies will not be finalized probably for weeks, however Florida could well be the canary in the coal mine, so to speak.

God bless Florida, and may God bless America.

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