Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Metrics, Not Polls

I just read an interesting article on Townhall by Matt Vespa that spoke of metrics that in the past have been quite good at predicting Presidential elections. He was quoting David Chapman who had compiled a thread that cuts through a lot of the poll B.S.

The following is about different metrics and is from Chapman’s Twitter account:

Bad economies:

Historically, the incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during an economic downturn. Ergo this metric appears neutral.

Incumbents and primaries:

Speaking of incumbents, Chapman added, “no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.”

I can hear you countering that Trump wasn’t actually running against anybody of any import, so of course he was going to win a high percent of the primary vote. However what is noteworthy is that even though the primary was basically non-competitive, Trump set a record for most primary votes received by an incumbent with 18.1M. (The previous record was held by Bill Clinton with 9.7M primary votes.)

Covid 19: (The biggest issue in the campaign is Covid-19.)

There has been 11 Incumbents to face a pandemic during re-election. The incumbent is 11-0 (1820-present).

Other bad stuff going on:

Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections,” 

Experience in Congress:

No one who served 15 years in the Senate has ever become president. Joe Biden has served 36 years (nearly four decades).

Google Searches:

Since 2004, the candidate that led in google searches has won the election. Trump leads Biden in google searches by a ratio of 3 to 1. 

Strength of Support:

Pew gives Trump a 20 pt advantage in strength of support. The leader in this poll has won every election since 1964.

Voter Enthusiasm (in my view enthusiasm is the key metric):

An ABC poll shows Trump with a 19-point enthusiasm advantage. Every candidate who held the edge in voter enthusiasm since 1988 has won the election.

Last night I wanted to see for myself what Trump looked like and how he was acting after his Covid infection, so I watched the Johnstown, Pa Trump rally . . . I watched the entire rally, from him getting off Air Force One to him getting back on Air Force One. 

In my honest non-biased opinion, the President looked very good. He had spunk. His speech was close to one hour and it was a typical Trump speech. He was quite energetic. The crowd was energetic and huge.

So in conclusion, especially from the viewpoint of voter enthusiasm, despite what the polls are showing, Trump will win a second term, and may God bless America.

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