Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Russia, Racism, and ? Recession

Is a recession coming? There appears to be an intense media drive to convince us that a recession is coming in the near future. Some of the talking heads on MSNC are not only predicting a recession, but are trying to convince us that a recession will be a good thing! . . . perhaps a good thing for most MSNBC viewers who have a vested interest in anything which is anti-Trump. Of course, President Trump says, “I do not think we are having a recession. We’re doing tremendously well.”

Forget MSNBC and ignore what President Trump thinks for a second. Is a recession coming or not? What do those who are supposed to be more learned about the economy think about the question of upcoming recession or no recession? A survey of economists by the National Association of Business Economists reveals that 74% of U.S. business economists expect a recession by the end of 2021. This number is down from 77% in the same survey that was done six months ago. In the same survey, 38% felt that there would be a recession in 2020 – down from 42% six months ago. Within the past week Charles Paine had two separate articles on Townhall Finance. One was titled “Recession? Wishful Thinking While Ignoring the Facts.” The second, “Bottom Line: No Evidence of a Recession.” Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, recently sounded FDR-esque when he said. “We have nothing to fear about a recession right now, except for fear of recession.” . . .  whatever that means!

So what are we left with? 

What would you say, if I told you that one of the best ways to predict “recession or no recession” is to go to Elkhart, Indiana. That’s right, according to the Wall Street Journal, Elkhart, Indiana! That is because Elkhart, Indiana is the capital of this nation’s recreational-vehicle industry. Waning sales of luxury items is often one of the early signs of an upcoming slowdown, and multiyear drops in recreational-vehicle shipments have preceded the last three recessions. Shipments of recreational-vehicles fell 4.1% last year, and shipments to dealers have fallen about 20% this year! This makes it look like a recession is coming! However, some RV shipment skeptics attribute this year’s slowdown merely to overbuilding after an increase in demand in 2017 which left dealers with more than enough inventory. The RV Industry Association is, in fact, forecasting a 2.5% increase in shipments to dealers in 2020. So maybe there will be no recession after all!

I guess the final answer to the question of “recession or no recession” in our future is still up in the air. From my perspective, if a recession is coming, hopefully it will hold off until after November 3, 2020. 🤞🤞

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