Posted on by Californiacontrarian

Is The Wuhan Virus That Much Different ?

In my last blog I talked about the importance of the denominator when talking about the incidence of and the mortality of the Wuhan flu.  
(Incidence of Wuhan flu = # of people infected/ total number of people). The dilemma: Is the denominator the total number of people or the total number of people tested ?The true incidence should the number of cases in the total population, not the total number of people tested. If the denominator is only the number of people tested then the “incidence” will be estimated to be falsely high. If we use the total population, then the true incidence is actually very very low. Look at the following numbers:       
U.S.A.: 3813 cases/331,022,651 population = 0.0011 % incidence. Washington State: 769 cases/ 7,800,000 population = 0.0098% incidence. California: 458 cases/ 37,253,956 population = 0.0012% incidence. New York: 740 cases/ 19,440,469 population = 0.0038% incidence
One of the critical points in today’s Wall Street Journal article by Neeraj Sood  addresses the question of the true incidence of this Wuhan flu. First off let’s be clear, Mr. Sood is a professor at U.S.C’s Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, not some schmo like me!  He suggests random testing to estimate the actual incidence of the Wuhan flu in certain populations. 

The other issue in this article: “Is the Wuhan flu actually much different from the typical influenza that we see in the U.S. virtually every year in the fall and winter?” Certainly this Wuhan flu seems to spread faster (RO > 2), and it is especially deadly for the elderly, especially those with other medical issues, and especially-plus for those in the close confines of nursing homes. But is it such a scourge that basically all of the Western world (basically all of Europe and North America) should come to a standstill? Is this Wuhan flu threat worth the economic disaster that is coming . . . a major economic disaster!
I guess the answer is: “Yes it certainly is to the elderly!”

But what about to the rest of us?  
(BTW: I am in one of the higher risk groups,  but I have to finish this now because I am going to the gym.)

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