In the Wall Street Journal on 3/14/20 there was an article comparing the Wuhan flu (coronavirus) in South Korea vs. Italy. The main drift of the article was comparing the populace of an Eastern culture with that of a Western culture. To paraphrase, the influence of Confucianism in Eastern cultures emphasizes respect for authority, and the good of the nation above individualism. In contrast in Western cultures there is widespread skepticism toward authority. Take for example, the public pressure that forced the relaxing of a 6 p.m. curfew on bars in Milan. Oops!
The other significant thing that I noticed in this article was “ the influence of the denominator,” which turns out to be a very significant influence of any statistics. For those of you who are somewhat math handicapped, I will try to explain. It is actually a very simple concept. Basically, if the denominator increases while the numerator stays the same, the resultant percent decreases.
Italy and South Korea have comparable populations. although Italy has about 15% more people. . . . Italy = 60 million, South Korea = 52 million. In Italy, initially, testing for the virus was restricted to those with symptoms (about 3,000 tests per day) whereas South Korea was performing more than 15,000 tests per day. The incidence of the Wuhan flu was the following:
Italy = 17,660 cases/ 97,488 tested for incidence of about 18%. So.Korea = 7,979 cases/240,668 tested for incidence of about 3%. So what is the true incidence of infection? . . . it depends on the denominator. Likewise, for the mortality:
Italy = 1,286deaths/17,660 cases for a mortality of about 7%. So. Korea = 67deaths/7,979 cases for a morality of 0.8 %. So what is the true mortality? Here it is a bit more complicated, as it depends on who is included in the denominator. If the denominator includes all of those tested, many of whom were minimally symptomatic or even asymptomatic, (South Korea) then the number of cases in the denominator will be skewed, and the mortality will be much less. Likewise, if the denominator is made up mostly of older, sicker people, (Italy) the denominator will also be skewed, but in the opposite direction. The same will apply here in the U.S. . . . what is the denominator? If, as is the situation in Washington State, the denominator is predominately made up of those in nursing homes and their close contacts, then the mortality will be much higher than the overall mortality once drive-through testing becomes widely available and the denominator is drastically increased.
So how dangerous is this Wuhan flu? It depends on the denominator!
buy atorvastatin 40mg pill buy atorvastatin generic purchase atorvastatin generic
cipro 500mg sale – cost ciprofloxacin amoxiclav price
cipro price – buy bactrim 480mg online cheap augmentin 375mg tablet
buy ciprofloxacin 500mg generic – order generic amoxicillin
cost erythromycin
flagyl uk – cefaclor price azithromycin cost
stromectol oral – amoxiclav cost cheap tetracycline 250mg
buy valacyclovir 1000mg pills – vermox canada oral acyclovir
ampicillin where to buy penicillin drug amoxil over the counter
flagyl over the counter – zithromax 250mg sale buy zithromax sale
order furosemide 40mg online – buy prazosin 2mg for sale purchase captopril generic
buy metformin 1000mg generic – cipro 500mg for sale order lincomycin 500 mg sale
zidovudine 300 mg us – buy zyloprim medication order allopurinol online cheap
order clozaril generic – order pepcid 40mg pill pepcid canada
order anafranil sale – order generic mirtazapine purchase sinequan sale
quetiapine 100mg over the counter – buy luvox 50mg generic eskalith tablet
atarax 10mg tablet – buy sarafem 20mg online order amitriptyline 25mg sale
augmentin 1000mg price – order ethambutol 600mg generic cipro online buy
order amoxicillin pill – buy keflex 250mg sale purchase ciprofloxacin generic
azithromycin tablet – tindamax where to buy ciprofloxacin 500 mg without prescription
buy cleocin no prescription – buy generic vantin 200mg chloromycetin order online
buy stromectol 3mg – levofloxacin 250mg cost buy cefaclor no prescription
ventolin where to buy – brand allegra 180mg theo-24 Cr 400 mg price
buy medrol 4 mg – cheap claritin 10mg buy azelastine 10ml sale
clarinex 5mg generic – purchase albuterol for sale oral ventolin 4mg
cost micronase 2.5mg – glyburide pills dapagliflozin order online
order glucophage pill – buy acarbose pills precose 25mg without prescription
repaglinide drug – prandin 2mg price jardiance 10mg price
buy semaglutide 14 mg generic – order glucovance online cheap desmopressin drug
lamisil 250mg cheap – buy generic terbinafine griseofulvin without prescription
order famvir 250mg generic – buy acyclovir 800mg pill buy valaciclovir without prescription
buy ketoconazole pills – buy butenafine for sale buy cheap generic sporanox
buy lanoxin 250mg without prescription – dipyridamole 25mg tablet buy lasix tablets
metoprolol 100mg canada – buy cozaar 50mg generic buy nifedipine 30mg sale
order hydrochlorothiazide for sale – zebeta ca order zebeta 5mg
nitroglycerin canada – buy nitroglycerin generic buy diovan medication
simvastatin free – tricor draw lipitor maid
rosuvastatin plot – pravachol buy border caduet pills block
buy viagra professional slow – viagra professional tiny levitra oral jelly muscle
dapoxetine sort – sildigra glance cialis with dapoxetine task
cenforce sum – brand viagra border brand viagra online cake
brand cialis honour – alprostadil variety penisole involve
brand cialis famous – brand cialis underneath penisole eager
cialis soft tabs smash – viagra super active sparkle viagra oral jelly annoy
cialis soft tabs new – cialis oral jelly online librarian viagra oral jelly online plenty
dapoxetine count – viagra plus tournament cialis with dapoxetine course
cenforce fifteen – cenforce online america brand viagra anybody